Cruz’s Lead: Dropping Faster Than a Teardrop Jumper Through a ‘Basketball Ring’

Mere hours can mark a huge shift in public support when it comes to the world of American politics; a day can mark the difference between being #1 and being buried in last place, with nothing left besides a homosexual airport bathroom cruisin’ sex scandal. a “wide stance” and a titillating headline on Drudge. This is especially true in this unpredictable, Populist-takeover primary election cycle.

Leading up to the final weekend before the Indiana primary on Tuesday, May 3, the general sense from the media and political pundits was that Rafael “Ted” Cruz would win in the traditional, Midwestern, conservative state of Indiana. According to FiveThirtyEight, Cruz had a 65% chance of winning as of April 30, 2016, with Trump projected at only 35%.

This was based on FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-plus forecast”, which is based on poll averages (similar to RealClearPolitics), but also considers other factors in order to produce a more accurate result. This may include weighting polls to compensate for sample sizes, outliers and past performance. “Polls-plus forecasts” may additionally factor in the effect of other state polls, national polls and endorsements, which considers how these external factors generate or kill momentum going into election day.

Cruz Receives Coveted Endorsement From Indiana Governor, But Is Left Mike Pence None the Richer After Latest Polls

Just one day later, despite a promising IPFW/Downs Center poll for Cruz on April 29 showing Rafael beating Trump by 16%, a running mate, endorsements and a strategic alliance with George Soros-funded John Kasich, FiveThirtyEight now had Trump on top with a 69% chance of winning vs. the Canadian-born Rafael at 31%. (In case you were wondering, Kasich–by the way, did you know his father was a mailmain?–had a less than 1% chance.)

FiveThirtyEight seems to be a favorite of Cruz-donor-funded propaganda ministers Glenn Beck (TheBlaze.com/Mercury Radio Arts/GlennBeck.com) and RedState.com, who have cited FiveThirtyEight several times in the past. However, this latest projection is one they just might happen to overlook. If the comments sections on pro-Cruz sites are a window into the mind of a Rafael voter, the common thought process seems to be:

  • Ignore polls unfavorable to Cruz
  • If it’s a FiveThirtyEight prediction, pretend that suddenly it’s not an accurate site, even though I’ve cited it many times in the past to prove why Cruz will win
  • DON’T go out and try to campaign harder for Rafael; instead–
  • Oh, and leave comments on articles talking about how you’re going to pray and fast

The grim news for Cruz continues, however, if you look at FiveThirtyEight’s “polls only” prediction, which is a straight average of polls: Trump was always on top and now is pulling away with a 97% chance of winning.

After Cruz’s defeat last Tuesday, his campaign quickly focused on the narrative that Trump winning every county in five out of five states, with 50% and sometimes 60% of the vote, was somehow “all part of the plan”, and all of a sudden INDIANA is the REAL important race. We have seen this goalpost-moving before in places like Wisconsin and Utah, where Cruz made the NEXT state a “crucial” race, using a win to then spread the narrative of “momentum” and justifying staying in the race despite clearly having no viable chance to catch up to Trump.

Unlike Wisconsin and Utah, however, at this point in the race, Cruz is already mathematically eliminated from a first-ballot win, and can only stay in to try to block Trump from 1237 delegates. Mathematically, winning or losing Indiana does not prevent Trump from getting 1237 delegates (a loss does make it more difficult, however), nor would would the outcome allow Cruz to win on a first ballot. Thus, Indiana as a “crucial” race is part Cruz and media spin; part a psychological “must-win” to keep Cruz supporters engaged and motivated to keep fighting into the convention; and part behind-the-scenes posturing for a contested convention.

The harsh reality for Cruz supporters is that Indiana does not actually matter; at worst, it will be an inconvenient delay to an inevitable Trump nomination. It is nothing more than an excuse for Cruz supporters to stage an elaborate fantasy role-play in which ignoring polls, praying and fasting allow them to save the Republic, the Constitution and the Cult of “Pure” Conservatives for generations of neo-con, conservative SJWs to come.

(Aside: Speaking of Cruz and #NeverTrump supporters acting like SJWs, here’s Cruz-donor-funded propagandist Dana Loesch (TheBlaze) trashing Indiana Governor Mike Pence for not endorsing Rafael “Ted” Cruz when she wanted it, and in the way she wanted it. Considering the eventual non-endorsement “endorsement”, coupled with Cruz supporters trashing Pence via conservative media and via social media, it seems clear that Pence was essentially shamed and strong-armed into endorsing Cruz by all of these “principled” conservatives, who dictate to others who they should endorse and when. And if you don’t do as they say? Well, as they acted with Corey Lewandowski, they will act like SJWs and try to shame you until you eat from their palms. But that’s another story for another day…)

Is Indiana Really Cruz’s Last Sta–Disregard That. This Just In: Cruz Just Named California As His Next “Last Stand”

Why do I get the idea that win or lose in Indiana, the NEXT state will magically be ANOTHER “crucial” race for Cruz? Because despite previously claiming Indiana was a “make or break” race, Rafael just declared he would continue even after a loss.

There have been unsubstantiated reports that Cruz has noticed his tanking support in Indiana as well, and is pulling out to focus on California.

While the Senator from Alberta’s antics grow tiresome, even if we forced ourselves to humor him, the California numbers are even WORSE. FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection puts Trump at a 89% winning chance vs. Cruz’s 10%. It has been steadily growing worse for Cruz for over the last few weeks, and shows no signs of stopping. Polls-only projections are also brutal–well, you get the idea. To spare Cruz and his supporters of harsher and harsher realities of the situation, I’ll just stop.

Let’s just say that if Cruz was planning to claim that “everything comes down to Indiana and/or California”, his campaign may want to prepare for some embarrassment in the near future. I cannot predict the future, but trying to claim that Trump can be blocked from 1237 delegates; or that if he’s close, the unbound delegates will not simply coalesce behind the front-runner on the first ballot to avoid complete Republican party destruction, is simply denial of reality.

Delegates Jump Off the Sinking Cruz Ship

Speaking of unbound delegates, if they have any sort of self-respect, they see the writing on the wall, too. The very delegate system Cruz boasted his mastery of may be coming back to bite him, ironically illustrating Trump’s assertion that the delegate system is a “scam”.

Per The National Review and the New York Times, delegates are softening from their support of Cruz and are considering Trump.


Rafael and supporters insisted delegates are chosen by the people, and are free to vote in the best interest of the party in the general election. Therefore, it follows that they should have no problems if the delegates break from their pledge to support Cruz in order to avoid a party split for not nominated the Republican front-runner.


Ultimately, it is up to the voters to organize en masse and prove the projections and wrong. That is the beauty of American politics: one day Cruz could be sinking fast, as I’ve thoroughly demonstrated here, but what next? Nobody knows. By this time tomorrow, Glenn Beck may have already prayed and fasted his candidate to victory, and all this speculation about Trump’s inevitability could be nothing but an ill-advised jinx; a premature blowing of my speculative load.

Will Indiana voters choose to help end the prolonged GOP battle and avoid a potentially damaging contested convention? Or will they decide that Cruz needs to keep fighting despite the odds and seeming futility? At what point do you lose respect for yourself? When does the embarrassment over clinging to something that will never happen, cause you to make the right decision?

As with every election, we have an idea, but we’ll never truly know until the results are in. Indiana will be an interesting case study in media hype vs. the actual polls.

All we can do now is sit, wait, fast with Glenn Beck and #Pray4Ted.

UPDATE 5/3/2016:

By the time I finished writing this piece, Trump now has an 83% chance of taking Indiana from Rafael Cruz per FiveThirtyEight.